Barring any wobbles, which could move the track east or west, it looks like TS Hermine will probably become a hurricane as it nears the Florida coast. Currently, it looks like it will track just offshore of Apalachicola.


Panama City still needs to watch this system as it approaches. Port St. Joe and Apalachicola will need to prepare for definite TS or Hurricane force winds tonight. The Big Bend will need to prepare also for TS to Hurricane force winds.

Rain bands from TS Hermine are already approaching the area:


Here’s the spag:


This is a reminder never to depend on the exact forecast track. Notice the narrow bands of probability gradients. A slight jog east or west could mean the difference between no winds and heavy winds:


The current wind field:


As you can see, much of the TS-force wind is to the east of the storm, as it often is. However, the NW quadrant has shown more organization today, so it just depends on how it strengthens. This is when things get very very difficult to predict.