So here’s the skinny (as one of my friends asked me to boil down my last post to same):

  1. Anyone who says they know where this system is going or how strong it will be is wrong. (For now)
  2. At this time, I strongly believe that as of Sunday night, we will have a sufficient understanding of this system to be back to “normal” expectations for the forecast for where and how strong.

Right now, 99L is experiencing heavy shear. Basically, a circulation has to be present in the lower, middle, and upper layers; right now, the upper layers are being strongly blown off to the east, so it’s not able to strengthen. We’re pretty sure where the system is headed for the next two days, but it’s currently unusually hard to predict where it will go after that. I’ve circled the confident part of the forecast below:

2016-08-26 13_30_56-99L_tracks_latest.png (768×768)

Chances are pretty strong that the system will end up around or south of the Keys around Sunday evening. At that point, we believe the models will have a better grip on the system and environmental conditions, and we’ll know if it’ll be impacting west Florida, the panhandle, or MS/AL or LA/TX.

So hang in there and we’ll see what it looks like Sunday evening.