99L is down to a 40%/48h and 70%/5d chance for formation. However, this is somewhat expected. Conditions are very tough for the system for the next couple of days, but are expected to allow for formation and strengthening thereafter — if the system survives.

Currently, the spag is frankly all over the place:

2016-08-25 14_55_25-99L_tracks_latest.png (768×768)

There’s a solid chance this system will fizzle. There’s a solid chance this system will develop. If it does develop, there’s really no telling where it’ll go at this point.

FL Panhandle should pay attention. But so should the entire Gulf Coast.

The main message is uncertainty until around the weekend.