Intermediate update; another update around 11am. More frequent updates because Colin is wobbling and reforming itself in a way that brings it a little more to the left/north/west.

Here’s the latest spag:

Most of the winds are to the east of the center of Colin, of course. Here’s the current wind field:

There’s also a sizeable thread of tornadoes for most of Florida:

“4” translates into a 40% chance of a tornado within 50mi of any given location. Another way of looking at it is that this is a prediction that every 50sq.mi. area today will see one tornado (on average).

Lastly for this update – here’s an idea of the predicted corridor of weather. I believe this is a few hours old and may need to be adjusted north a bit; but either way, it’s a general guide: If you’re in the yellow area, you definitely need to be aware of weather today. Well, all of Florida in the eastern time zone – that’s a pretty good border as well.