TD3 will most likely strengthen to TS Colin before making landfall during the day on Monday. The main impact is expected to be heavy rain, although there will be strong sustained tropical-storm force winds near the center of the system. There will be storm surge associated with this system, mainly impacting the Big Bend and Tampa areas of Florida. By Tuesday morning, the system should have moved across Florida and escape into the Atlantic.

Let’s start with a look at the current GFS model. Here’s an animated gif showing its prediction for the storm’s path and composition:

Click for fullsize

Click for fullsize animated

Next, here’s the current NHC forecast cone. A reminder that the cone expresses the forecast of the center of the storm, not its full extent. In this case in particular, it is expected that the winds and rain will be to the east/right of the storm. That’s why I like the GFS above – it shows the impact better than the cone, but the cone is important. The narrower, the more confident NHC is with the model ensemble; the wider, the less sure.

And my standard favorite product, the spaghetti models, which show the individual forecast models. This is what the NHC forecast come comes from. It’s nice to see the models in strong agreement like this. Things can often change and shift, but this is really the best guess on where the center of the system will go.

Click for fullsize

The last graphic for this update will be the intensity forecast. Chances are strong that we’ll see tropical storm force winds, but the system might not develop into a tropical storm, but remain as a tropical depression. And there’s a very slim chance of development into a hurricane, but this is very very unlikely:

Click for full graphic

Lastly, here’s the NHC Forecast Discussion, which I find to be one of the most valuable tools in trying to figure out what a system is expected to do. Following that will be more text products of interest.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning.  Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone.  The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear.  NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt.  The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours.  After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 21.9N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 24.0N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 26.9N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 29.6N  84.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 32.6N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/1200Z 46.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
000
WTNT33 KNHC 051751
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
000
FONT13 KNHC 051458
PWSAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016               
1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   3(22)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   X(26)   X(26)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   X(24)   X(24)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   X(20)   X(20)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)   X(26)   X(26)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  10(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  32(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  18(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   9(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NAPLES FL      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

VENICE FL      34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   1( 1)  23(24)   9(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)  24(25)   6(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)  27(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   4( 4)  36(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN