Invest 93L is currently around the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, but is strongly forecast to impact Florida, from southwest to west to the big bend and potentially the panhandle on Tuesday. As always, there is uncertainty; in this case, less uncertainty in the track and more uncertainty in the intensity. So let’s cover the track first with the current spag:

Click for full model image

Click for full model image

Click for full model image

Click for full model image

(Note that I’m trying something new – click on the above images to load the full image)

So the forecast tracks are relatively in agreement. The center of Invest 93L will most likely make landfall somewhere in west/southwest Florida early Tuesday morning.

All of this depends on how much 93L interacts with the Yucatan; and indeed, that is the major uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The more interaction with land, the less intensification is likely. Here’s the current intensity models:

Click on image for full graphic

Click on image for full graphic

As before, you can click on the above image to get the full graphic; but what I’ve done here is to clip it to the 72hr mark, which is approximately when landfall is expected. In previous runs, the forecast range was for a tropical depression or *possibly* weak tropical storm. That has greatly changed; at this point, most models predict a weak-to-moderate tropical storm, with the full range being anything from a tropical depression to strong tropical storm.

A couple of outlier models predict a slower storm developing into a weak Category 1 hurricane, but I’ve clipped that because they are outliers. But click and see for yourself. 🙂

Tropical storms (as opposed to hurricanes or major hurricanes) are obviously not generally a huge threat to the public as a whole. The main threat comes from rain, although of course there can be some moderate damage from winds. So I think the most important consideration for risk assessment from this system will be the rain.

edit: Note that as as I was preparing this post, a post was made indicating that there may be a threat of tornadoes in south/southwest Florida starting Sunday evening through Tuesday morning or so. So please be aware of that threat.

Here’s the 5-day rain forecast:

Click for full forecast image

Click for full forecast image

 The main threat, in my opinion, for this system will be the rain impact. Portions of west Florida are set to receive 5+ inches of rain (with one forecaster mentioning 7-9 inches of rain being possible). The likeliest metro areas for this impact include Tampa and Orlando; Jacksonville may also see a lot of rain. But large portions of the Florida peninsula are likely to see a lot of rain, excluding the Miami metro area.

Here’s the latest EURO model with a possible scenario for rain impacts – this is a predictive radar, i.e. a snapshot of what the precipitation might be at a particular time:


Finally, I’d like to wrap things up with some quotes from Bob Henderson:

If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Colin—which would be the earliest we have reached the “C” name since Atlantic hurricanes have been named, and the earliest third storm of the calendar year in all recorded storms since 1851, beating an unnamed storm that formed on June 12, 1887.

And here’s a link to Jeff Masters from yesterday.

Finally, here’s the current NOAA Tropical Weather Outlook for 93L:


200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Bonnie, located about 245 miles
north-northwest of Bermuda.

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized.  This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Beven