NHC have upped the chances of formation to 80%/80% — that is, 80% chance in the next 48h and five days, respectively. Also, compare the AM update with the PM update:

AM Update

AM Update

PM Update

PM Update

Sorry those aren’t the same size — I clip them by hand. But hopefully you can tell that the predicted cone has shrunk a bit.

So here’s some spag:

Here’s the intensity forecast:

So the chances of this system developing into TS Bonnie are increasing with time, although most likely the system will be a moderate to strong tropical depression, or perhaps a weak tropical storm. Which mostly just means “rain”. Which is, of course, good news.

Interestingly, the WPC’s QPF doesn’t show much rain from the system yet:

And finally, the Tropical Weather Outlook message:


740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better 
organized since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become 
a little better defined.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form 
on Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast.  All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Kimberlain