91L is most likely be going to become either a tropical storm (TS) or sub-tropical storm (STS) this afternoon; most likely a named storm rather than a depression. It looks like this will be mainly a rain event for South Carolina, give or take.
Here’s the spag:
One question is: How strong will the system be? Here’s the intensity forecast. Note that landfall will happen, limited the ability of the system to strengthen. So chances are that if we do have TS Bonnie, she’ll quickly weaken to a depression:
And finally, here’s the special tropical weather outlook from this morning:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 745 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC. Forecaster Stewart