The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances that Bonnie will develop into a tropical system to 70% across the next five days. In summary, 91L in whatever form will impact the eastern US coast this weekend (assuming it doesn’t wander away from land)
Here’s the spag:
And here’s the intensity forecast:
So it seems likely that if this system develops, it will most likely be a tropical depression.
Finally, the NHC forecast from this morning:
A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent