NHC has 99L back down to 30% chance of formation. There’s a non-tropical low off the coast of Texas that’s interfering, along with some shear. That’s good news. It’s definitely a rain even today and tomorrow for NW FL.
So now we’re here at Monday. What’s the rain looking like? Here’s the NWS WPC rain forecast for the next three days:
I was hoping my preferred spag would be ready for this update, but it’s not and I need to publish this, so… here’s the latest spag:
That’s basically Fort Walton Beach to the Big Bend on the spread. Rain for everyone anyway.
I’m embedding the latest GOES East infrared imagery so you can see the moisture in the system right now, which is well to the east of the center:
So, lots of rain. Yay!
And finally, here’s the NHC write-up:
An area of low pressure centered over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, about 300 miles west of Key West, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends from western Cuba northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The circulation associated with this system has become a little less well defined since yesterday, and upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development. The system is expected to move northward toward the northern Gulf Coast over the next 24 to 36 hours, to the east of a broader non-tropical area of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a tropical cyclone, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of the southeastern United States during the next few days. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent