The models are firming up a little and bringing this system anywhere from Pensacola to Mexico Beach, with the main cluster of models bringing it to Panama City. And as of this evening, chances for tropical formation are now up to 40% over the next three days. Again, even if tropical development happens, though, the intensity forecast shows most likely a tropical depression or very weak tropical storm. This is a rain event. Here’s the current spag:

99L Spag

99L Spag

Remember, even with a weak storm like this, the spag shows the various models’ forecast tracks for the center of the system. It doesn’t show the full area that will be affected by the system.

Here’s the current rain outlook:

NWS WPC Five Day Precipitation Forecast Map

NWS WPC Five Day Precipitation Forecast Map

And finally, here’s the NHC outlook discussion:

A well-defined low pressure system located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles north of the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms
that extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico southward across
western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves northward toward the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. However, only a slight deviation of
the motion toward the northeast would place the system in less
hostile environmental conditions.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this large disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast, Florida, and
the southeastern United States during the next few days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low on Monday, if necessary. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from your local National Weather Service
office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent