First, the good news: Chances for tropical formation have dropped from 40% last update to 30% this update. Now, let’s get to the graphics:

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (zoom)

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (zoom)

As expected, the precise location for landfall of this system is not known, but as of this update, the spag still brings it to the panhandle. Speaking of spag, here we go:

2015-09-27 04_49_17-Cortana 2015-09-27 04_49_35-Start

Some models have shifted west, and some east. I think we’ll have a much better picture of where it’s going on Monday morning as it emerges into the Gulf.

Finally, here’s from the NHC:

An area of low pressure over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and an
upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico
are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development as this system moves northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or two.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf
Coast and southeastern United States during the next several days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later today, if necessary.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and products from your local National
Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent