The big news: 99L is now up to a 40% chance of formation across the next three and five days. And the spag currently indicates a landfall in the Florida panhandle around Tuesday. Whether or not this system develops into a tropical cyclone, a bit of rain is expected. So let’s delve into the graphics:

First, let’s look at the forecast wind strength, which shows that even if this system gains tropical characteristics, it will likely be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm at landfall. So winds are unlikely to be an issue at this time:

99L Intensity Forecast

99L Intensity Forecast

Let’s next look at a couple of spags to see where the system is currently expected to go:

99L Spag

99L Spag

99L Spag

99L Spag

So as of right now, this definitely looks like an event that will affect Panama City.

The current NWC WPC rain forecast for the next five days shows the possibility that it might be less of a rain event than previously predicted (whole map and zoomed):

p120i

NWS WPC 5-day Rain Forecast (zoomed)

NWS WPC 5-day Rain Forecast (zoomed)

And finally, here’s what the NHC is saying:

An area of low pressure located over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds
over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected
to move northward at about 10 mph into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday and should then move more quickly northward or
northeastward as it interacts with an upper-level low near the
Texas coast. While upper-level winds are only expected to be
marginally conducive, there is some potential for this system to
become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern
United States early next week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if
necessary. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from
your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
NHC Atlantic Outlook

NHC Atlantic Outlook