The National Weather Service has issued a Hydrologic Alert for the panhandle of Florida regarding a tropical disturbance that will cause a large amount of rain Tuesday/Wednesday.

Here’s a closeup the WPC cumulative 5-day rainfall forecast:

2015-09-26 04_07_58-Start

As you can see, that’s a current prediction of more than five inches of rain around the Panama City and Port St. Joe areas.

Most of this predicted rainfall is currently expected to occur from Tuesday to Wednesday of this upcoming week as the tropical disturbance moves through.

Here’s the NHC’s take on the system:

two_atl_5d0

The NHC currently gives 10% for the chances this system will develop into a tropical system over the next three days, and 20% over the next five days, so chances are low that it will be anything other than a large rain event.

As of this update, there are no posted tropical models for where the system will head.

Here’s the text of the NWS Hydrological Alert:

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY... 
 
...OVERVIEW... 
 
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY 
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS 
SYSTEM ESTABLISHING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON 
MONDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AND 
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. 
 
...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... 
OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS, RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WERE 
COMMON ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. 
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, 
DEFICITS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE COMMON. SURPLUS RAINFALL WAS ONLY 
NOTED ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY, WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 
TWO MONTHS WERE MORE THAN 6 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. 
THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS 
LED TO STREAMFLOWS THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ONLY IN THE 
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ARE STREAMFLOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE 
SEPTEMBER. 
 
...FORECAST RAINFALL... 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON 
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO 
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. IN THESE AREAS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS 
POSSIBLE. FURTHER EASTWARD, SOMEWHAT LIGHTER TOTALS ARE 
ANTICIPATED, GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. 
 
...POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS... 
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE 
REGION COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT, 
PARTICULARLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
COAST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. 
THE CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT MODEST RISES ON AREA 
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL OCCUR, BUT WITH STREAMFLOWS BELOW 
NORMAL, RISES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGES WITH THE 
CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE 
ALONG THE QUICKER RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, LIKE 
THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD. SHOULD BASIN-WIDE HEAVIER AMOUNTS 
OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING WOULD 
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

And here is the current NHC take on the system:

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America.  This
system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico during the
next day or two, and it will begin to interact with an upper-level
low located near the Texas coast.  This interaction will likely
lead to the development of a broad and complex area of low pressure
that moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, but
environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly
conducive for this system to become a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent