The National Weather Service has issued a Hydrologic Alert for the panhandle of Florida regarding a tropical disturbance that will cause a large amount of rain Tuesday/Wednesday.
Here’s a closeup the WPC cumulative 5-day rainfall forecast:
As you can see, that’s a current prediction of more than five inches of rain around the Panama City and Port St. Joe areas.
Most of this predicted rainfall is currently expected to occur from Tuesday to Wednesday of this upcoming week as the tropical disturbance moves through.
Here’s the NHC’s take on the system:
The NHC currently gives 10% for the chances this system will develop into a tropical system over the next three days, and 20% over the next five days, so chances are low that it will be anything other than a large rain event.
As of this update, there are no posted tropical models for where the system will head.
Here’s the text of the NWS Hydrological Alert:
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... ...OVERVIEW... A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ESTABLISHING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS, RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, DEFICITS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE COMMON. SURPLUS RAINFALL WAS ONLY NOTED ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY, WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS WERE MORE THAN 6 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS LED TO STREAMFLOWS THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ONLY IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ARE STREAMFLOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. ...FORECAST RAINFALL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. IN THESE AREAS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. FURTHER EASTWARD, SOMEWHAT LIGHTER TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED, GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. ...POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS... LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. THE CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL OCCUR, BUT WITH STREAMFLOWS BELOW NORMAL, RISES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGES WITH THE CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE QUICKER RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, LIKE THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD. SHOULD BASIN-WIDE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
And here is the current NHC take on the system:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America. This system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, and it will begin to interact with an upper-level low located near the Texas coast. This interaction will likely lead to the development of a broad and complex area of low pressure that moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, but environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive for this system to become a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent